Breaking the Doom Loop

It has become fashionable to blame Systems Engineering and the requirements development and management sub-function as the cause of aerospace program cost overruns and schedule expansions. Risk aversion and a lack of focus on outcomes are the true enemy of delivering capability.

Our experience over many decades at Celeris Systems is that requirements are not the enemy, but requirements are also not the product. However, they are guides and act as common touchpoints for multiple groups who are developing and integrating layers of complicated technology. But too much focus on the guardrails allows money to be siphoned away from the integration and test programs where the product/system is built and assessed. It really is a return to engineering first principles.

At Celeris, we believe that event-based verification drives a focus on “how do you want to use the system”. We have repeatedly seen that over 50% of the necessary requirements come from that vision, are generated quickly, and are more streamlined toward what it truly required of the system. This rapid progression to most of the significant requirements breaks the fear cycle of “we spent a lot of money on requirements, so we only have enough money for one test article; so we need more analysis because we can’t risk the test article.” Requirements management and system analysis feel “safe” without the commitment to buy material and start building. The doom loop is repeated across many programs because of a desire for the non-existent “zero risk path”.

In comparison, SpaceX and many other “New Space” companies have reversed the investment ratio by emphasizing building and testing many articles and grounding any analysis in real data. Elon Musk said in a recent Forbes article by David Jeans, “Pay for outcomes, not requirements documents!” One must look at all of their launch vehicle development to see a reliance on test articles over analytics. They are going to fly it like they test it with real outcomes all along the way.

By emphasizing outcomes against smart requirements, real system performance and development progress can be assessed while the risk averse culture is avoided. That’s an important mindset shift. Hardware failures are positive outcomes. Test successes are positive outcomes. “Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly” is a positive outcome. It wasn’t necessarily what we wanted, but we learned a great deal to deliver a product.

The focus on events and outcomes also allows us to avoid the red herring of contract type. Cost-Plus contracts are not necessarily better than Fixed Price contracts. The contracting structure was only meant to fairly balance the risk and reward. The structures were poorly managed on both sides and used to allow large teams to “mark time” with no penalty. Outcomes measured against “how we want to use the system” drives everyone into a product-focused mentality to deliver a system and not process artifacts.

Mike Louie, Vice President, Space and Missile Programs
System Engineering, Integration & Test Subject Matter Expert

Mike has spent his 33-year career supporting launch vehicles, large scale DoD missile and space programs in SEIT leadership positions. In addition, he has spent over a decade leading information technology system integration projects for customers across multiple industry verticals.